地铁车辆与供电系统维修策略优化及预测技术

第1 章 绪论 ··········································································.001

1.1 轨道交通维修策略优化和预测现状 ···································.002

1.1.1 维修的发展现状 ···················································.002

1.1.2 预测性维修的优化目标 ··········································.009

1.1.3 车辆维修现状 ······················································.014

1.1.4 剩余寿命预测发展现状 ··········································.017

1.1.5 备品备件需求预测概述 ··········································.022

1.2 本书的主要内容 ····························································.028

参考文献 ···········································································.029

第2 章 车门系统可靠性分析与维修策略优化 ································.037

2.1 离散时间马尔可夫过程 ···················································.037

2.2 通用生成函数法 ····························································.040

2.2.1 通用生成函数法的基本原理 ····································.040

2.2.2 复杂系统的通用生成函数技术 ·································.041

2.3 可靠性模型及维修周期优化 ·············································.045

2.3.1 通用生成函数法可靠性指标 ····································.045

2.3.2 系统可靠性建模概述 ·············································.046

2.3.3 维修周期优化模型 ················································.047

2.4 车门系统可靠性建模与维修策略优化 ································.048

2.4.1 车门系统可靠性建模 ·············································.048

2.4.2 车门系统的可靠性指标计算 ····································.055

2.4.3 车门系统维修策略优化 ··········································.056

2.5 本章小节 ·····································································.058

参考文献 ···········································································.058

第3 章 基于Phase-type（PH）分布的系统可靠性分析 ··················.060

3.1 PH 分布的基本概念 ······················································.060

3.1.1 PH 分布的定义 ····················································.060

3.1.2 PH 分布的性质 ····················································.062

3.1.3 PH 分布的可靠性指标 ···········································.064

3.2 基于PH 分布的串并联系统可靠性分析 ······························.065

3.2.1 串联系统 ····························································.065

3.2.2 并联系统 ····························································.067

3.3 牵引系统案例分析 ························································.071

3.3.1 系统描述 ····························································.071

3.3.2 模型分析与建立 ···················································.072

3.3.3 系统可靠性指标的计算 ··········································.074

3.4 制动系统案例分析 ························································.075

3.4.1 系统描述 ····························································.075

3.4.2 模型分析与建立 ···················································.077

3.4.3 系统可靠性指标的计算 ··········································.080

3.4.4 可靠性与维修策略对比分析 ····································.081

3.5 车门系统案例分析 ························································.082

3.5.1 系统描述 ····························································.082

3.5.2 模型分析与建立 ···················································.083

3.5.3 系统可靠性指标的计算 ··········································.086

3.5.4 可靠性与维修策略对比分析 ····································.087

3.6 本章小结 ····································································.088

参考文献 ···········································································.088

第4 章 基于冲击理论的维修策略优化 ··········································.090

4.1 冲击理论概述 ······························································.090

4.1.1 故障机理分析 ······················································.090

4.1.2 基于Poisson 冲击流的累积损伤模型 ·························.093

4.2 基于冲击理论的组合维修概率模型 ···································.095

4.2.1 轮对磨耗及维修效果分析 ·······································.095

4.2.2 维修策略描述 ······················································.097

4.2.3 组合维修概率模型 ················································.099

4.3 故障风险及组合策略优化模型 ··········································.108

4.3.1 轮缘厚度超限故障风险 ··········································.108

4.3.2 组合维修策略优化模型 ··········································.110

4.4 案例分析 ·····································································.111

4.5 本章小结 ·····································································.118

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